From raw signals to a plan you can question.
The same six steps run in any country. Only the data it reads and the local rules change.
Gather
Pull records, or registry, survey and map signals, into one place, and note what is measured and what is missing.
Forecast
Predict where shortages will grow, by role and place, and say plainly that it is a prediction.
Measure the effect
Estimate what adding a clinician really does at the eligibility line, with checks, not a guess.
Allocate
Spread a fixed budget to help the most people, learning a rule rather than ranking raw numbers.
Explain
Attach a plain-language report, a confidence score, and the assumptions behind every recommendation.
Govern
Label every output with how it was produced, and refuse to run on stand-in data pretending to be real.
Built on real data.
Every figure and relationship on this site is computed from real, public sources, cited where it appears: the World Bank, HRSA, County Health Rankings, the AAMC, WHO, CMS, USDA Economic Research Service, and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. What ACWIS adds for a partner is the step from these public patterns to a program-specific causal estimate and an allocation plan, produced on the partner’s own data. That pilot, on real program data, is the collaboration we are looking for. You can inspect the method itself: ACWIS forecasts shortages with gradient-boosted models, estimates causal effects with a regression-discontinuity design at a program’s eligibility cutoff (cross-checked against double machine-learning), and allocates with budget-constrained policy learning.
The commitments built in
- Every result carries a label for how it was produced. A prediction is never dressed up as proof, and a model estimate is never shown as certainty.
- A safeguard stops the system from running on substituted data and reports what is missing instead.
- The values in any plan, how much weight goes to access, fairness, and cost, are visible choices you set, not hidden in the maths.
- Every recommendation supports a human decision. It does not replace one.